2012 Technology Predictions: Forecasting the Revolution
December 26, 2011
Two years ago, I dabbled in futurology by listing out my predictions for the evolution of the software and Internet technology world. Last year, I was too busy working on dealing with the dramatic, unpredicted changes in the market to even make a prediction.
In 2009, I highlighted five segments of the technology industry that would have explosive, transformative growth:
– Mobile Payments and Transaction Platform: This was definitely the case, with the rapid (or I should say, rabid) growth of both mobile payments and micropayment platforms such as Square and Stripe. What I did not predict was that the most successful companies will have single syllable names that start with “S”. This remains one of the most exciting areas in technology, and it is exhilarating to see these companies bringing down the barriers that have been there for so long.
– Distributed computing methodology, infrastructure and development environment: I do not take credit for predicting something as obvious as the amazing growth of Cloud Computing as both a maturing technology and a computing paradigm, but what excited me was that it started with the growth and success of “development in the cloud” and “devops in the cloud”, where the power of cloud computing is harnessed to allow new applications to be built and scaled in record time. This really altered the start-up landscape, by dramatically lowering development and infrastructure costs for new entrants in the market. I was actually rather surprised at the dramatic growth, which was 100x more than my own expectations.
– Emergence of smart energy management platforms: This seems to me a miss, even after two years. While companies like Opower and Silver Spring Networks are definitely making great strides in this market (with successful funding rounds and planned IPO), I have yet to see this grow as fast as it could have been, considering that it has the ability to affect a major portion of the economy.
– Web-based healthcare-related data management and portability: This seems to me a miss, but for a different reason. Healthcare data management is now moving inexorably to both the cloud and the device. The iPad is fast becoming the device of choice for doctors, and this is helping to push electronic medical records adoption, as well as the creation of a whole industry around physicians apps that is hopefully going to help improve medical care outcome as well. My prediction was rather too conservative, and caught unprepared by the wonders of the iPad.
– E-government platforms have not grown as well as I have hoped, perhaps because in the last two years, the government was still too busy with fixing the economy to adopt these new technologies. That is not to say that there is not much progress, but growth here was just not as visible and dramatic as with the other sectors. That said, Deloitte Consulting is still very bullish about this and predicts an “inflexion point” very soon.
What I Missed
Of course there are too many things I missed, chief among them the explosive growth E-commerce in its various forms (Daily Deals, Grouponing, Flash Sales, Sample Sales Clubs, P2P rental), the resurgence of simpler, better collaboration (Dropbox), and the growth of social and mobile games. The main lesson I took away from this is that technology is evolving at a breakneck pace, fueled by entrepreneurial zeal, availability of funding (for early stages), and the dramatic growth of the world’s Internet population. In order to get better at this, I need to be more bullish and bolder in my predictions, as new technologies are invented everyday to solve issues that we thought was not even possible just a few years ago.
So, what is in store in 2012?
Many experts have already weighed in on this topic, and I would definitely check them out:
Intel’s Predictions: http://software.intel.com/en-us/blogs/2011/12/05/matts-top-10-technology-predictions-for-2012/
Gartner’s Predictions: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/12/01/the-road-ahead-gartners-outlook-for-2012-and-beyond/
Fast Company’s Bold Predictions: http://www.fastcompany.com/1802338/10-bold-business-technology-predictions-for-2012
Marc Andreessen’s Prediction: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/
As for myself, I am really interested to see if the following are going to happen in the next twelve months:
1. The beginning of the end of the Search Engine as we know it: People will be increasingly rely on implicit (and soon, explicit) knowledge networks to discover and evaluate information on the Internet. The all purpose, simplistic Search Engine will fade away into the background of the multi-channel, multi-media and multi-devices information sphere we live in now.
2. The return to simplicity will decide the winner in the crowded productivity, collaboration and business application sectors. Dropbox already led the way, but I expect many more companies to follow suit and build their product around simplicity, usefulness, and unintrusiveness.
3. B2B transactions becoming exclusively Internet-based, and empowered by professional social networks
4. Crowdsourcing finally achieves critical mass and mainstream adoption.
5. Dramatic technological revolution of hitherto laggards sectors in manufacturing and services industries. The main driver for this are the rapid adoption of mobile devices by the workforce and the expansion of high speed wireless networks.